Is it all relative? Maybe oil prices
aren't so bad, after all.
Yes, gas prices have soared, but
they're still 34 percent below 1980 levels. Housing and baseball tickets are
another story.
HOUSTON – We groan
when our grandparents go on about Coca-Cola costing only a nickel in their day.
How did things become so much more expensive, they always want to know?
Here's the short answer:
With inflation factored in, that same bottle of Coke during World War II would
cost roughly what we pay for it today. Eggs, milk, and bread now cost less.
But when the subject of gasoline
comes up, we sound like our elders. How did it get to be so much?
The fact is, oil is still relatively
inexpensive. By one measure tracked by Dow Jones, we are still far from matching
an April 1980 spike in US oil prices. The $39.50 per barrel price that month
exceeds $90 in today's dollars.
We remain a long way from that, with
oil easing below the $50 mark in trading Monday.
That's not to say that energy costs
aren't hitting families and corporations in the pocketbook. Even as oil prices
have softened in recent days, there's been new concern about energy dampening
economic growth. But a broader view - looking at oil over a longer period and
against other goods and services - puts the impact in a less dire perspective.
"Gas is actually cheap right
now," says Timothy McMahon, editor of InflationData.com. "Up until
a year ago, oil was at a historic low, and they were giving this stuff away.
And so to go from $20 a barrel to $50 a barrel looks like a big increase in
a small period of time. But if it were spread out over those 25 years, nobody
would say a thing."
Even with the rising costs, economists
say, energy still makes up a small percentage of a family's budget, about 4
percent. That's half what it was in the early 1980s.
In fact, lots of goods and services
have gone down in price during that time, including clothes, electronics, and
food. But don't dismiss your grandparents that quickly. Certain things like
new cars, new homes, healthcare, and a college education are considerably more
expensive today.
AAA, the nation's largest organization
for motorists, is quick to point out that most families try to stick to some
kind of household budget and do feel the pinch when oil prices fluctuate.
"AAA's view for a long time
has been that inflation-adjusted prices for energy are probably helpful to economists
and policymakers, but not for the typical family that has to pay a gasoline
credit-card statement every month," says Geoff Sundstrom of AAA. "The
prices are paid with real dollars or current dollars."
Consumers seem to be taking the rapid
rise in oil prices in stride. Many aren't cutting out that weekend movie to
make up for the damage at the pump.
Jeff Stepanik, for instance, says
gas prices over $2 a gallon have not had any impact on his family's budget (or
lack thereof). He is still tinkering around with motorcycles and his wife is
still happily hitting the mall. "We don't live any differently than we
did before," says the Houston account manager. "It's not like we're
going without a meal because of gas prices." But he is considering a life
with routinely higher gas prices - as witnessed by his family's most recent
purchase.
Three weeks ago, Mr. Stepanik sold
his wife's "gas-guzzling" Ford Expedition and bought a hybrid Nissan.
"This vehicle made more financial sense, because we are not going to stop
driving," he says.
He estimates that gas prices would
have to exceed $10 a gallon before he considers changing his driving patterns.
That's not an uncommon attitude in
the United States. Even during the oil embargo of the 1970s, it took a while
before consumers began buying smaller, more fuel-efficient cars or moving closer
to where they worked.
"It's going to take a lot higher
gas prices for people to consider using mass transit or carpooling again,"
says Mark Baxter, director of the Maguire Energy Institute at Southern Methodist
University in Dallas. "It is really difficult for Americans to give up
the freedom they have with the automobile."
He sees it happening perhaps first
with the younger generation, who are more shocked by the rising prices because
they have grown up with cheap gas. For instance, he knows a college student
who took a lower-paying summer job because it was 20 miles closer to where he
lived.
"They are doing the math,"
says Mr. Baxter.
But Michael Solomon, consumer behavior
expert at Auburn University in Alabama, calls the frenzy over rising gas prices
"a tempest in a teapot," considering the amount of money people spend
on small indulgences.
"The same people who are complaining
about gas prices don't blink when they pay $3.50 for a latte," he says.
"That's different somehow."
What's different is the changing
perception of certain goods and services, he says. The necessities, such as
food, clothing, and energy, are supposed to stay relatively constant, so that
every year consumers are able to afford a little more of the "good stuff."
"We learn that a loaf
of bread is $2.29 and we base our expectations on that. The usual becomes the
right," says Dr. Solomon. "But the 11th Commandment is not that bread
shall be $2.29."
By Kris Axtman
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